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, 524 (7563), 97-101

Temporal and Spatial Analysis of the 2014-2015 Ebola Virus Outbreak in West Africa

Miles W Carroll  1 David A Matthews  2 Julian A Hiscox  3 Michael J Elmore  4 Georgios Pollakis  3 Andrew Rambaut  5 Roger Hewson  6 Isabel García-Dorival  3 Joseph Akoi Bore  7 Raymond Koundouno  7 Saïd Abdellati  8 Babak Afrough  9 John Aiyepada  10 Patience Akhilomen  10 Danny Asogun  10 Barry Atkinson  9 Marlis Badusche  11 Amadou Bah  12 Simon Bate  9 Jan Baumann  13 Dirk Becker  14 Beate Becker-Ziaja  11 Anne Bocquin  15 Benny Borremans  16 Andrew Bosworth  17 Jan Peter Boettcher  18 Angela Cannas  19 Fabrizio Carletti  19 Concetta Castilletti  19 Simon Clark  9 Francesca Colavita  19 Sandra Diederich  20 Adomeh Donatus  10 Sophie Duraffour  21 Deborah Ehichioya  22 Heinz Ellerbrok  18 Maria Dolores Fernandez-Garcia  23 Alexandra Fizet  24 Erna Fleischmann  25 Sophie Gryseels  16 Antje Hermelink  18 Julia Hinzmann  18 Ute Hopf-Guevara  18 Yemisi Ighodalo  10 Lisa Jameson  9 Anne Kelterbaum  14 Zoltan Kis  26 Stefan Kloth  18 Claudia Kohl  18 Miša Korva  27 Annette Kraus  28 Eeva Kuisma  9 Andreas Kurth  18 Britta Liedigk  11 Christopher H Logue  9 Anja Lüdtke  29 Piet Maes  30 James McCowen  9 Stéphane Mély  15 Marc Mertens  20 Silvia Meschi  19 Benjamin Meyer  31 Janine Michel  18 Peter Molkenthin  25 César Muñoz-Fontela  29 Doreen Muth  31 Edmund N C Newman  9 Didier Ngabo  9 Lisa Oestereich  11 Jennifer Okosun  10 Thomas Olokor  10 Racheal Omiunu  10 Emmanuel Omomoh  10 Elisa Pallasch  11 Bernadett Pályi  26 Jasmine Portmann  32 Thomas Pottage  9 Catherine Pratt  9 Simone Priesnitz  33 Serena Quartu  19 Julie Rappe  34 Johanna Repits  35 Martin Richter  18 Martin Rudolf  11 Andreas Sachse  18 Kristina Maria Schmidt  18 Gordian Schudt  14 Thomas Strecker  14 Ruth Thom  9 Stephen Thomas  9 Ekaete Tobin  10 Howard Tolley  9 Jochen Trautner  36 Tine Vermoesen  8 Inês Vitoriano  9 Matthias Wagner  25 Svenja Wolff  14 Constanze Yue  18 Maria Rosaria Capobianchi  19 Birte Kretschmer  37 Yper Hall  4 John G Kenny  38 Natasha Y Rickett  3 Gytis Dudas  39 Cordelia E M Coltart  40 Romy Kerber  11 Damien Steer  41 Callum Wright  42 Francis Senyah  4 Sakoba Keita  43 Patrick Drury  44 Boubacar Diallo  45 Hilde de Clerck  46 Michel Van Herp  46 Armand Sprecher  46 Alexis Traore  47 Mandiou Diakite  48 Mandy Kader Konde  49 Lamine Koivogui  50 N'Faly Magassouba  51 Tatjana Avšič-Županc  27 Andreas Nitsche  18 Marc Strasser  32 Giuseppe Ippolito  19 Stephan Becker  14 Kilian Stoecker  25 Martin Gabriel  11 Hervé Raoul  52 Antonino Di Caro  19 Roman Wölfel  25 Pierre Formenty  44 Stephan Günther  11
Affiliations

Temporal and Spatial Analysis of the 2014-2015 Ebola Virus Outbreak in West Africa

Miles W Carroll et al. Nature.

Abstract

West Africa is currently witnessing the most extensive Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak so far recorded. Until now, there have been 27,013 reported cases and 11,134 deaths. The origin of the virus is thought to have been a zoonotic transmission from a bat to a two-year-old boy in December 2013 (ref. 2). From this index case the virus was spread by human-to-human contact throughout Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. However, the origin of the particular virus in each country and time of transmission is not known and currently relies on epidemiological analysis, which may be unreliable owing to the difficulties of obtaining patient information. Here we trace the genetic evolution of EBOV in the current outbreak that has resulted in multiple lineages. Deep sequencing of 179 patient samples processed by the European Mobile Laboratory, the first diagnostics unit to be deployed to the epicentre of the outbreak in Guinea, reveals an epidemiological and evolutionary history of the epidemic from March 2014 to January 2015. Analysis of EBOV genome evolution has also benefited from a similar sequencing effort of patient samples from Sierra Leone. Our results confirm that the EBOV from Guinea moved into Sierra Leone, most likely in April or early May. The viruses of the Guinea/Sierra Leone lineage mixed around June/July 2014. Viral sequences covering August, September and October 2014 indicate that this lineage evolved independently within Guinea. These data can be used in conjunction with epidemiological information to test retrospectively the effectiveness of control measures, and provides an unprecedented window into the evolution of an ongoing viral haemorrhagic fever outbreak.

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