Estimating demand for a new contraceptive method: projections for the introduction of Sayana Press

Int J Gynaecol Obstet. 2015 Aug;130 Suppl 3:E21-4. doi: 10.1016/j.ijgo.2015.03.020. Epub 2015 Apr 7.

Abstract

Objective: To describe a demand estimation exercise conducted in response to an initiative to introduce Sayana Press in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

Methods: Secondary data sources were used to develop estimates of the number of Sayana Press units needed for countrywide introductions in 12 countries. To estimate uptake, the number of women who had stated an intention to use injectables was calculated. Two sets of assumptions (one conservative, one more ambitious) were used to assess conversion to actual use.

Results: Even with the use of very conservative assumptions, and assuming no method switching, Sayana Press was estimated to have the potential to cumulatively reach 3-6million women by 2016.

Conclusion: This projected uptake in a relatively short period and at the very beginning of an adoption curve suggests that Sayana Press has promise for countries looking to expand their list of contraceptive choices.

Keywords: Countrywide introduction; Demand estimation; New contraceptive method; Sayana Press.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Africa South of the Sahara
  • Asia
  • Contraception / methods*
  • Contraception / statistics & numerical data
  • Contraceptive Agents, Female / supply & distribution*
  • Female
  • Forecasting
  • Health Services Needs and Demand / statistics & numerical data
  • Health Services Needs and Demand / trends*
  • Humans
  • Medroxyprogesterone Acetate / supply & distribution*

Substances

  • Contraceptive Agents, Female
  • Medroxyprogesterone Acetate