Background and aims: Current tools for risk stratification of chronic liver disease subjects are limited. We aimed to determine whether the serum-based ELF (Enhanced Liver Fibrosis) test predicted liver-related clinical outcomes, or progression to advanced liver disease, and to compare the performance of ELF to liver biopsy and non-invasive algorithms.
Methods: Three hundred patients with ELF scores assayed at the time of liver biopsy were followed up (median 6.1 years) for liver-related clinical outcomes (n = 16) and clear evidence of progression to advanced fibrosis (n = 18), by review of medical records and clinical data.
Results: Fourteen of 73 (19.2%) patients with ELF score indicative of advanced fibrosis (≥9.8, the manufacturer's cut-off) had a liver-related clinical outcome, compared to only two of 227 (<1%) patients with ELF score <9.8. In contrast, the simple scores APRI and FIB-4 would only have predicted subsequent decompensation in six and four patients respectively. A unit increase in ELF score was associated with a 2.53-fold increased risk of a liver-related event (adjusted for age and stage of fibrosis). In patients without advanced fibrosis on biopsy at recruitment, 55% (10/18) with an ELF score ≥9.8 showed clear evidence of progression to advanced fibrosis (after an average 6 years), whereas only 3.5% of those with an ELF score <9.8 (8/207) progressed (average 14 years). In these subjects, a unit increase in ELF score was associated with a 4.34-fold increased risk of progression.
Conclusions: The ELF score is a valuable tool for risk stratification of patients with chronic liver disease.
Keywords: decompensation; liver cancer; liver cirrhosis; non-invasive biomarkers; prediction of clinical outcomes.
© 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.