Endogenous Price Bubbles in a Multi-Agent System of the Housing Market

PLoS One. 2015 Jun 24;10(6):e0129070. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0129070. eCollection 2015.

Abstract

Economic history shows a large number of boom-bust cycles, with the U.S. real estate market as one of the latest examples. Classical economic models have not been able to provide a full explanation for this type of market dynamics. Therefore, we analyze home prices in the U.S. using an alternative approach, a multi-agent complex system. Instead of the classical assumptions of agent rationality and market efficiency, agents in the model are heterogeneous, adaptive, and boundedly rational. We estimate the multi-agent system with historical house prices for the U.S. market. The model fits the data well and a deterministic version of the model can endogenously produce boom-and-bust cycles on the basis of the estimated coefficients. This implies that trading between agents themselves can create major price swings in absence of fundamental news.

MeSH terms

  • Commerce
  • Housing / economics*
  • Housing / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Models, Economic*
  • United States

Grants and funding

The authors have no support or funding to report.