Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin

PLoS One. 2015 Jul 29;10(7):e0133678. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0133678. eCollection 2015.


Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate.

MeSH terms

  • Commerce / economics*
  • Commerce / statistics & numerical data
  • Internet*
  • Probability
  • Statistics as Topic*

Grants and funding

The authors have no support or funding to report.