The 10-year Absolute Risk of Cardiovascular (CV) Events in Northern Iran: a Population Based Study

Mater Sociomed. 2015 Jun;27(3):158-62. doi: 10.5455/msm.2015.27.158-162. Epub 2015 Jun 8.

Abstract

Background: The present study was conducted to estimate 10-year cardiovascular disease events (CVD) risk using three instruments in northern Iran.

Material and methods: Baseline data of 3201 participants 40-79 of a population based cohort which was conducted in Northern Iran were analyzed. Framingham risk score (FRS), World Health Organization (WHO) risk prediction charts and American college of cardiovascular / American heart association (ACC/AHA) tool were applied to assess 10-year CVD events risk. The agreement values between the risk assessment instruments were determined using the kappa statistics.

Results: Our study estimated 53.5%of male population aged 40-79 had a 10 -year risk of CVD events≥10% based on ACC/AHA approach, 48.9% based on FRS and 11.8% based on WHO risk charts. A 10 -year risk≥10% was estimated among 20.1% of women using the ACC/AHA approach, 11.9%using FRS and 5.7%using WHO tool. ACC/AHA and Framingham tools had closest agreement in the estimation of 10-year risk≥10% (κ=0.7757) in meanwhile ACC/AHA and WHO approaches displayed highest agreement (κ=0.6123) in women.

Conclusion: Different estimations of 10-year risk of CVD event were provided by ACC/AHA, FRS and WHO approaches.

Keywords: 10-year cardiovascular risk; ACC/AHA tool; Framingham risk score; Northern Iran; WHO risk prediction charts.