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. 2016;12(1):150-8.
doi: 10.1080/21645515.2015.1060380.

Modeling the Impact of Rubella Vaccination in Vietnam

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Free PMC article

Modeling the Impact of Rubella Vaccination in Vietnam

Emilia Vynnycky et al. Hum Vaccin Immunother. .
Free PMC article

Abstract

Supported by GAVI Alliance, measles-rubella vaccination was introduced in Vietnam in 2014, involving a mass campaign among 1-14 year olds and routine immunization of children aged 9 months. We explore the impact on the incidence of Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) during 2013-2050 of this strategy and variants involving women aged 15-35 years. We use an age and sex-structured dynamic transmission model, set up using recently-collected seroprevalence data from Central Vietnam, and also consider different levels of transmission and contact patterns. If the serological profile resembles that in Central Vietnam, the planned vaccination strategy could potentially prevent 125,000 CRS cases by 2050 in Vietnam, despite outbreaks predicted in the meantime. Targeting the initial campaign at 15-35 year old women with or without children aged 9 months-14 years led to sustained reductions in incidence, unless levels of ongoing transmission were medium-high before vaccination started. Assumptions about contact greatly influenced predictions if the initial campaign just targeted 15-35 year old women and/or levels of ongoing transmission were medium-high. Given increased interest in rubella vaccination, resulting from GAVI Alliance funding, the findings are relevant for many countries.

Keywords: rubella, Congenital Rubella Syndrome, measles-rubella vaccination, mathematical modelling, Vietnam.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Summary of the age-specific proportions of individuals who were found to be seronegative in the serological data that were used to characterize the epidemiology of rubella in Vietnam[4,14,15,16] prior to the introduction of vaccination.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Predictions of the number of CRS cases per 100,000 live births in Vietnam until the year 2050, for the 4 vaccination scenarios, introduced in 2013, obtained for the base-case assumptions about contact between individuals. The black line shows the average predictions, based on 100 rejection samples; the gray areas show the 95% range of the predictions.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Predictions of the number of CRS cases per 100,000 live births in Vietnam until the year 2050, for the 4 vaccination scenarios, introduced in 2013, obtained for the alternative assumption about contact (the rate at which older individuals come into effective contact with younger individuals is 30% of the rate at which older individuals come into effective contact with other older individuals). The black line shows the average predictions, based on 100 rejection samples; the gray areas show the 95% range of the predictions.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Summary of predictions of the average cumulative CRS incidence ratio for each assumed serological profile and assumptions about contact between individuals.

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References

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