How to develop a more accurate risk prediction model when there are few events

BMJ. 2015 Aug 11:351:h3868. doi: 10.1136/bmj.h3868.


When the number of events is low relative to the number of predictors, standard regression could produce overfitted risk models that make inaccurate predictions. Use of penalised regression may improve the accuracy of risk prediction

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Models, Statistical*
  • Regression Analysis*
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Risk Assessment / methods
  • Sample Size