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. 2016 Mar;70(3):226-30.
doi: 10.1136/jech-2015-206124. Epub 2015 Oct 5.

Spatial Spillover Effects of a Community Action Programme Targeting On-Licensed Premises on Violent Assaults: Evidence From a Natural Experiment

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Spatial Spillover Effects of a Community Action Programme Targeting On-Licensed Premises on Violent Assaults: Evidence From a Natural Experiment

Lars Brännström et al. J Epidemiol Community Health. .

Abstract

Background: Spatial dependencies may influence the success of community action strategies to prevent and reduce harmful alcohol use. This study examined the effectiveness of a multicomponent Responsible Beverage Service (RBS) programme targeting on-licensed premises on police-recorded assaults in Swedish municipalities. It was expected that the implementation of the programme within any given municipality had an indirect effect by reducing violent assaults in adjacent municipalities.

Methods: This study was a natural experiment exploiting the temporal and spatial variation in the implementation of the RBS programme to predict change in the rate of violent assaults in all Swedish municipalities during 1996-2009 (n=288; T=14; N=4 032). Yearly police-recorded violent assaults per 100,000 inhabitants aged 15 and above committed on weekend nights were used as a dependent variable. Programme fidelity was identified by means of survey data. A semilogarithmic fixed-effects spatial panel regression model was used to estimate the direct, indirect and total effects of the programme.

Results: The direct, indirect and total effects were -1.8% (95% CI -4.4% to 0.8%), -5.8% (95% CI -11.5% to -0.1%) and -7.6% (95% CI -13.2% to -2.2%), respectively. Averaged over time and across all municipalities, implementing one additional programme component in all municipalities will thus reduce violent assaults in one typical municipality by nearly 8%.

Conclusions: The indirect effect of the programme was three times larger than its direct effect. Failing to account for such local spillover effects can result in a considerable underestimation of the programme's total impact and may lead to erroneous policy recommendations.

Keywords: ALCOHOL; PREVENTION; SPATIAL ANALYSIS; VIOLENCE.

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