Postbloom fruit drop (PFD) causes lesions on the petals of citrus flowers and induces fruit abscission causing severe damage to production when the flowering period coincides with intense rainfall. The aims of this study were to develop a phenological-climatological model for citrus PFD occurrence and, together with weather data series from several locations, to determine and map the agro-climatic favorability of PFD occurrence in the state of São Paulo, Southern Brazil. A phenological flowering model was developed to identify when citrus flowering occurs. The flowering starts after when a temperature below 10 °C in the months of June or July is reached followed by cumulative rainfall within 5 days of at least 20 mm, and then 96 °C days. Between the beginning of flowering and its peak, 147 °C days are required, and between the peak and its end, approximately 229 °C days, being 206 °C days from the peak to the moment when flowers remaining are about 50 % of total. The relationship between PFD incidence and accumulated rainfall during the critical period (between flowering peak and 50 % of flowers remaining) was adjusted by the Gompertz model (R (2) = 0.99, p < 0.05). After its validation, this model was used to estimate PFD incidence for 29 locations in the state, from 1993 to 2013, which allowed to map the PFD climatic favorability for the state through a Geographical Information System using linear models based on latitude, longitude, and altitude. The obtained map showed a trend of PFD incidence increasing from the northwest of the state of São Paulo towards the south and the coastal region, with medium to very high favorability in the center of the state. The results of this study can be used by growers as a guide for disease control planning as well as for defining the regions where the climatic conditions are likely to escape this disease.
Keywords: Disease risk assessment; Gompertz model; Orange orchards; Phenological model.