Development of Risk Score for Predicting 3-Year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes: Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study

PLoS One. 2015 Nov 11;10(11):e0142779. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0142779. eCollection 2015.


Objective: Risk models and scores have been developed to predict incidence of type 2 diabetes in Western populations, but their performance may differ when applied to non-Western populations. We developed and validated a risk score for predicting 3-year incidence of type 2 diabetes in a Japanese population.

Methods: Participants were 37,416 men and women, aged 30 or older, who received periodic health checkup in 2008-2009 in eight companies. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥ 126 mg/dl, random plasma glucose ≥ 200 mg/dl, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥ 6.5%, or receiving medical treatment for diabetes. Risk scores on non-invasive and invasive models including FPG and HbA1c were developed using logistic regression in a derivation cohort and validated in the remaining cohort.

Results: The area under the curve (AUC) for the non-invasive model including age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference, hypertension, and smoking status was 0.717 (95% CI, 0.703-0.731). In the invasive model in which both FPG and HbA1c were added to the non-invasive model, AUC was increased to 0.893 (95% CI, 0.883-0.902). When the risk scores were applied to the validation cohort, AUCs (95% CI) for the non-invasive and invasive model were 0.734 (0.715-0.753) and 0.882 (0.868-0.895), respectively. Participants with a non-invasive score of ≥ 15 and invasive score of ≥ 19 were projected to have >20% and >50% risk, respectively, of developing type 2 diabetes within 3 years.

Conclusions: The simple risk score of the non-invasive model might be useful for predicting incident type 2 diabetes, and its predictive performance may be markedly improved by incorporating FPG and HbA1c.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Area Under Curve
  • Blood Glucose / analysis
  • Body Mass Index
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / diagnosis*
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / epidemiology
  • Female
  • Glycated Hemoglobin A / analysis
  • Health Surveys*
  • Humans
  • Hypertension / complications
  • Hypertension / diagnosis
  • Incidence
  • Japan / epidemiology
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Occupational Health*
  • Odds Ratio
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • ROC Curve
  • Risk Factors
  • Smoking
  • Waist Circumference


  • Blood Glucose
  • Glycated Hemoglobin A

Grant support

This study was supported by a grant from the Industrial Health Foundation and Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) (25293146) from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.