Background: A large proportion of the tropical rain forests of central Africa undergo periodic selective logging for timber harvesting. The REDD+ mechanism could promote less intensive logging if revenue from the additional carbon stored in the forest compensates financially for the reduced timber yield.
Results: Carbon stocks, and timber yields, and their associated values, were predicted at the scale of a forest concession in Gabon over a project scenario of 40 yr with reduced logging intensity. Considering that the timber contribution margin (i.e. the selling price of timber minus its production costs) varies between 10 and US$40 m -3, the minimum price of carbon that enables carbon revenues to compensate forgone timber benefits ranges between US$4.4 and US$25.9/tCO 2 depending on the management scenario implemented.
Conclusions: Where multiple suppliers of emission reductions compete in a REDD+ carbon market, tropical timber companies are likely to change their management practices only if very favourable conditions are met, namely if the timber contribution margin remains low enough and if alternative management practices and associated incentives are appropriately chosen.
Keywords: Break-even price; Carbon credit; Diameter cutting limit; Felling cycle; Forest degradation; Forest dynamics; Forest management; REDD+; Tropical forest.