Objectives: Despite increased funding and efforts to prevent and control HIV infections in the black and Hispanic communities, racial disparities persist in the USA. We used a mathematical model to explain the phenomena.
Methods: A mathematical model was constructed to project HIV prevalence ratio (PR), incidence rate ratio (IRR), and HIV-specific mortality rate ratio (MRR) among blacks and Hispanics vs. whites in two scenarios: (1) an annual reduction in HIV incidence rate at the 2007-2010 level and (2) an annual reduction in HIV incidence rate at the 2007-2010 level among whites (4.2 %) and twice that of whites among blacks and Hispanics (8.4 %).
Results: In scenario no. 1, the PR, IRR, and MRR among blacks would decrease from 7.6 to 5.8, 7.9 to 5.9, and 11.3 to 5.3 and among Hispanics from 2.8 to 1.8, 3.1 to 1.9, and 2.3 to 1.0, respectively. In scenario no. 2, the PR, IRR, and MRR among blacks would decrease from 7.6 to 5.1, 7.9 to 2.5, and 11.3 to 4.7 and among Hispanics from 2.8 to 1.6, 3.1 to 0.8, and 2.3 to 0.9, respectively.
Conclusions: Much of the persistent racial disparities in HIV infection in the USA, as measured by PR, IRR, and MRR, can be explained by higher HIV prevalence among blacks and Hispanics. The public health community should continue its efforts to reduce racial disparities, but also need to set realistic goals and measure progress with sensitive indicators.
Keywords: HIV; Mathematical model; Racial disparity; USA.