Age-standardized incidence rates of prostate cancer (PC) sharply increased during the period 1990-2005 in Italian areas covered by cancer registries, while corresponding mortality rates remained nearly constant. The latest observations have reported on a reversal of the incidence trend with decreasing values after 2005. We provided incidence, mortality, and prevalence estimates at national and geographical area levels, together with time projections up to the year 2020. We applied the MIAMOD method, using as input national mortality data for the years 1970-2010 and population-based survival data for the period of diagnosis (1985-2002). We assumed relative survival of prostate cancer remained constant after the year of diagnosis (2005). The age-standardized incidence rates of PC were estimated to increase during the period 1984-2005, from 31 per 100,000 in 1984 to 93 per 100,000 in 2005. From 2005 onwards, the estimated rates declined to 71 in 2015 and to 62 in 2020. Age-standardized mortality rates slightly increased from 1970 up to about 19 per 100,000 in 1999 and then started to decrease with an estimated reduction of about 2.3% per year. Mortality projections indicated a continuing reduction, with a predicted age-standardized rate of about 12 per 100,000 in 2020. Prevalence was estimated to continuously increase up to a crude prevalence value of 1.2% in the year 2020. The results indicate that the epidemic peak of PC was reached around the year 2005 followed by declining incidence rates, while a substantial decrease in mortality, starting during the early 2000s, is expected to continue during the 2010s.
Keywords: Incidence; Mortality; Prevalence; Prostate cancer; Time trends.
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