Aims: Some allogeneic cell therapies requiring a high dose of cells for large indication groups demand a change in cell expansion technology, from planar units to microcarriers in single-use bioreactors for the market phase. The aim was to model the optimal timing for making this change.
Materials & methods: A development lifecycle cash flow framework was created to examine the implications of process changes to microcarrier cultures at different stages of a cell therapy's lifecycle.
Results: The analysis performed under assumptions used in the framework predicted that making this switch earlier in development is optimal from a total expected out-of-pocket cost perspective. From a risk-adjusted net present value view, switching at Phase I is economically competitive but a post-approval switch can offer the highest risk-adjusted net present value as the cost of switching is offset by initial market penetration with planar technologies.
Conclusion: The framework can facilitate early decision-making during process development.
Keywords: allogeneic cell therapy manufacture; drug development costs and cash flow; process change.