The impact of spatial arrangements on epidemic disease dynamics and intervention strategies

J Biol Dyn. 2016;10:222-49. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2016.1156172.

Abstract

The role of spatial arrangements on the spread and management strategies of a cholera epidemic is investigated. We consider the effect of human and pathogen movement on optimal vaccination strategies. A metapopulation model is used, incorporating a susceptible-infected-recovered system of differential equations coupled with an equation modelling the concentration of Vibrio cholerae in an aquatic reservoir. The model compared spatial arrangements and varying scenarios to draw conclusions on how to effectively manage outbreaks. The work is motivated by the 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti. Results give guidance for vaccination strategies in response to an outbreak.

Keywords: 49J15; 92B05; Optimal control theory; epidemiology; ordinary differential equations.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Cholera / epidemiology*
  • Disease Outbreaks*
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Vibrio cholerae / isolation & purification
  • Vibrio cholerae / pathogenicity
  • Water Microbiology