New risk-scoring system including non-alcoholic fatty liver disease for predicting incident type 2 diabetes in East China: Shanghai Baosteel Cohort

J Diabetes Investig. 2016 Mar;7(2):206-11. doi: 10.1111/jdi.12395. Epub 2015 Aug 13.


Aims/introduction: The present study aimed to explore the incidence of type 2 diabetes, and to develop a risk-scoring model for predicting diabetes among the adult health check-up population in East China.

Materials and methods: Participants from the Shanghai Baosteel Cohort (age ≥20 years) without diabetes at baseline were recruited in a 6-year follow-up study. In order to explore risk factors for diabetes, this cohort was categorized into two groups: new diabetes and no diabetes. Three models were developed by Cox regression analysis. The model accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

Results: A total of 6,542 individuals were included in the Shanghai Baosteel Cohort Study. Of them, 368 (5.6%) developed type 2 diabetes at the end of the follow-up period. Cox regression analysis found a close association between incident type 2 diabetes and several risk factors including non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases at baseline. The Shanghai Baosteel Score including advanced age (2 points), hypertriglyceridemia (2 points), obesity (2 points), non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases (2 points) and impaired fasting glucose (3 points) had a good diagnostic performance with estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.724), sensitivity (57.9%) and specificity (72.2%) at a cut-off point of >3.

Conclusions: A risk-scoring system including non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases can help identify individuals at a high risk of diabetes in the East Chinese population.

Keywords: Diabetes; Non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease; Proportional hazard models.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Blood Glucose
  • China
  • Cohort Studies
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / diagnosis*
  • Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / epidemiology
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Hyperlipidemias / complications
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease / complications*
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Regression Analysis
  • Risk Factors


  • Blood Glucose