Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations

Euro Surveill. 2016 Apr 14;21(15). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.15.30199.


Based on 2015 abundance of Aedes albopictus in nine northern Italian municipalities with temperate continental/oceanic climate, we estimated the basic reproductive number R0 for Zika virus (ZIKV) to be systematically below the epidemic threshold in most scenarios. Results were sensitive to the value of the probability of mosquito infection after biting a viraemic host. Therefore, further studies are required to improve models and predictions, namely evaluating vector competence and potential non-vector transmissions.

Keywords: Zika virus; imported viral diseases; outbreaks; vector-borne infections.

MeSH terms

  • Aedes / virology*
  • Animals
  • Climate
  • Ecosystem
  • Epidemics / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • Insect Vectors / virology*
  • Italy / epidemiology
  • Population Dynamics
  • Prevalence
  • Rainforest
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Zika Virus / classification
  • Zika Virus / isolation & purification*
  • Zika Virus / pathogenicity
  • Zika Virus Infection / epidemiology*
  • Zika Virus Infection / transmission
  • Zika Virus Infection / virology*