Association between metabolic syndrome and 10-year risk of developing cardiovascular disease in a Nigerian population

Int Health. 2016 Sep;8(5):354-9. doi: 10.1093/inthealth/ihw013. Epub 2016 Apr 26.


Background: Prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and consequential cardiovascular disease (CVD) events are on the increase in Nigeria. The study aimed to identify the prevalence of 10-year CVD risk in a Nigerian population and assess its relationship with different indices of MetS.

Method: A cross-sectional study was carried out on apparently healthy persons aged 18 years of age or older. Ten-year risk was calculated using the ATPIII/Framingham criteria. Subjects with risk score <10% were considered as having low risk, 10-20% moderate risk and >20% at high risk of developing CVD in 10 years. MetS was defined based on the Joint Scientific Statement on Harmonizing the MetS.

Result: Of the 211 subjects, mean age was 51.3±17.3 years. Average risk of developing CVD in the next 10 years was 3.7±5.3%. Prevalence of low, moderate and high risk of developing CVD among study participants was 86.3% (95% CI 82.0-91.3%), 11.8% (95% CI 6.9-16.1%) and 1.9% (95% CI 0.0-3.8%), respectively. Prevalence of MetS was 26.7% (95% CI 21.0-33.3%). There was poor agreement between MetS and the CVD risk scores (kappa=0.209, p=0.001) CONCLUSIONS: The results showed that complementary use of MetS and CVD risk score is imperative, as there is indication of risk in individuals without MetS. Also a large proportion of the study population requires lifestyle intervention. These findings provide the evidence necessary to tailor public health interventions in this population, especially towards younger age groups.

Keywords: 10-year CVD risk; ATPIII/Framingham risk score; CVD risk factors; Metabolic syndrome; Nigeria; Risk assessment tool.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Cardiovascular Diseases / etiology*
  • Cross-Sectional Studies
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Metabolic Syndrome / complications*
  • Metabolic Syndrome / epidemiology
  • Middle Aged
  • Nigeria / epidemiology
  • Prevalence
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Time Factors