Which parameters affect long-term mortality in older adults: is comprehensive geriatric assessment a predictor of mortality?

Aging Clin Exp Res. 2017 Jun;29(3):509-515. doi: 10.1007/s40520-016-0574-x. Epub 2016 May 2.


Background: Determining predictors of mortality among older adults might help identify high-risk patients and enable timely intervention.

Aims: The aim of the study was to identify which variables predict geriatric outpatient mortality, using routine geriatric assessment tools.

Methods: We analyzed the data of 1141 patients who were admitted to the geriatric medicine outpatient clinic between 2001 and 2004. Comprehensive geriatric assessment was performed by an interdisciplinary geriatric team. Mortality rate was determined in 2015. The parameters predicting survival were examined.

Results: Median age of the patients (415 male, 726 female) was 71.7 years (53-95 years). Mean survival time was 12.2 years (95 % CI; 12-12.4 years). In multivariate analysis, age (OR: 1.16, 95 % CI: 1.09-1.23, p < 0.001), smoking (OR: 2.51, 95 % CI: 1.18-5.35, p = 0.017) and metabolic syndrome (OR: 2.20, 95 % CI: 1.05-4.64, p = 0.038) were found to be independent risk factors for mortality. MNA-SF scores (OR: 0.84, 95 % CI: 0.71-1.00, p = 0.050) and free T3 levels (OR: 0.70, 95 % CI: 0.49-1.00, p = 0.052) had borderline significance.

Discussion: The present study showed that the risk conferred by metabolic syndrome is beyond its individual components. Our findings confirm previous studies on the prognostic role of nutritional status, as reflected by MNA-SF. Serum fT3, a simple laboratory test, may also be used in geriatric outpatient clinics to identify individuals at risk.

Conclusions: The results of the study demonstrated the need for addressing modifiable risk factors such as smoking, metabolic syndrome, and undernutrition in older adults.

Keywords: Comprehensive geriatric assessment; Malnutrition; Metabolic syndrome; Mortality; Smoking.

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Cause of Death*
  • Comorbidity
  • Cross-Sectional Studies
  • Female
  • Geriatric Assessment / methods*
  • Hospitalization / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Metabolic Syndrome / mortality
  • Middle Aged
  • Nutritional Status
  • Risk Factors
  • Smoking / mortality