Validation of TURN, a simple predictor of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage after IV thrombolysis

Clin Neurol Neurosurg. 2016 Jul:146:71-5. doi: 10.1016/j.clineuro.2016.04.017. Epub 2016 Apr 23.

Abstract

Objective: We recently described TURN (Thrombolysis risk Using mRS and NIHSS), a computationally simple tool for predicting symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) after IV thrombolysis (rt-PA). Our objective was to compare TURN to existing scores for predicting sICH.

Methods: Our internal dataset consisted of 210 ischemic stroke patients receiving IV rt-PA from January 2009 until July 2013 at Yale New Haven Hospital. Our external dataset included 303 patients who received IV rt-PA during the NINDS rt-PA trial. Predictive ability and goodness of fit were quantified by odds ratios (OR) and areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and compared using unequal variance two-sample t-tests.

Results: TURN predicted sICH with a higher OR than ASTRAL in the internal dataset (2.72 versus 1.10, P=0.05). We found no other significant differences in OR or AUROC between TURN and other scores in both datasets.

Conclusion: Despite its computational simplicity, TURN predicts sICH with accuracy comparable to existing scores.

Keywords: Adverse outcomes; IV Thrombolysis; Ischemic stroke; Predictive scores; Symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage.

Publication types

  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Brain Ischemia / drug therapy*
  • Cerebral Hemorrhage / chemically induced*
  • Cerebral Hemorrhage / diagnosis*
  • Drug-Related Side Effects and Adverse Reactions / diagnosis*
  • Female
  • Fibrinolytic Agents / administration & dosage
  • Fibrinolytic Agents / adverse effects*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Outcome Assessment, Health Care / methods*
  • Prognosis
  • Stroke / drug therapy*
  • Thrombolytic Therapy / adverse effects*
  • Tissue Plasminogen Activator / administration & dosage
  • Tissue Plasminogen Activator / adverse effects*

Substances

  • Fibrinolytic Agents
  • Tissue Plasminogen Activator