Effects of Meteorological Parameters and PM10 on the Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Children in China

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2016 May 10;13(5):481. doi: 10.3390/ijerph13050481.


Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a globally-prevalent infectious disease. However, few data are available on prevention measures for HFMD. The purpose of this investigation was to evaluate the impacts of temperature, humidity, and air pollution, particularly levels of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter 10 micrometers (PM10), on the incidence of HFMD in a city in Eastern China. Daily morbidity, meteorological, and air pollution data for Ningbo City were collected for the period from January 2012 to December 2014. A total of 86,695 HFMD cases were enrolled in this study. We used a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) with Poisson distribution to analyze the nonlinear lag effects of daily mean temperature, daily humidity, and found significant relationships with the incidence of HFMD; in contrast, PM10 level showed no relationship to the incidence of HFMD. Our findings will facilitate the development of effective preventive measures and early forecasting of HFMD outbreaks.

Keywords: and mouth disease; children; distributed lag nonlinear model; foot; hand.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Air Pollutants / analysis*
  • Air Pollution / analysis*
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • China / epidemiology
  • Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control
  • Female
  • Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease / epidemiology*
  • Humans
  • Humidity*
  • Incidence
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Nonlinear Dynamics
  • Particulate Matter / analysis*
  • Poisson Distribution
  • Temperature*
  • Young Adult


  • Air Pollutants
  • Particulate Matter