A Population-based Model of Local Control and Survival Benefit of Radiotherapy for Lung Cancer

Abstract

Aims: To estimate the population-based locoregional control and overall survival benefits of radiotherapy for lung cancer if the whole population were treated according to evidence-based guidelines. These estimates were based on a published radiotherapy utilisation (RTU) model that has been used to estimate the demand and planning of radiotherapy services nationally and internationally.

Materials and methods: The lung cancer RTU model was extended to incorporate an estimate of benefits of radiotherapy alone, and of radiotherapy in conjunction with concurrent chemotherapy (CRT). Benefits were defined as the proportional gains in locoregional control and overall survival from radiotherapy over no radiotherapy for radical indications, and from postoperative radiotherapy over surgery alone for adjuvant indications. A literature review (1990-2015) was conducted to identify benefit estimates of individual radiotherapy indications and summed to estimate the population-based gains for these outcomes. Model robustness was tested through univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses.

Results: If evidence-based radiotherapy recommendations are followed for the whole lung cancer population, the model estimated that radiotherapy alone would result in a gain of 8.3% (95% confidence interval 7.4-9.2%) in 5 year locoregional control, 11.4% (10.8-12.0%) in 2 year overall survival and 4.0% (3.6-4.4%) in 5 year overall survival. For the use of CRT over radiotherapy alone, estimated benefits would be: locoregional control 1.7% (0.8-2.4%), 2 year overall survival 1.7% (0.5-2.8%) and 5 year overall survival 1.2% (0.7-1.9%).

Conclusions: The model provided estimates of radiotherapy benefit that could be achieved if treatment guidelines are followed for all cancer patients. These can be used as a benchmark so that the effects of a shortfall in the utilisation of radiotherapy can be better understood and addressed. The model can be adapted to other populations with known epidemiological parameters to ensure the planning of equitable radiotherapy services.

Keywords: Lung cancer; outcome; radiotherapy; recurrence; survival.