Bayesian prediction of lung and breast cancer mortality among women in Spain (2014-2020)

Cancer Epidemiol. 2016 Aug;43:22-9. doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2016.05.009. Epub 2016 Jun 16.


Background: Breast cancer (BC) is the main cause of cancer mortality among women, and mortality from lung cancer (LC) is increasing among women. The purpose of the present study was to project the mortality rates of both cancers and predict when LC mortality will exceed BC mortality.

Methods: The cancer mortality data and female population distribution were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Crude rate (CR), age-standardized rate (ASR), and age-specific rate were calculated for the period 1980-2013 and projected for the period 2014-2020 using a Bayesian log-linear Poisson model.

Results: All calculated rates were greater for BC than for LC in 2013 (CR, 27.3 versus 17.3; ASR, 13.5 versus 9.3), and the CR was not projected to change by 2020 (29.2 versus 27.6). The ASR for LC is expected to surpass that of BC in 2019 (12.9 versus 12.7).

Conclusions: By 2020 the LC mortality rates may exceed those of BC for ages 55-74 years, possibly because of the prevalence of smoking among women, and the screening for and more effective treatment of BC. BC screening could be a good opportunity to help smokers quit by offering counseling and behavioral intervention.

Keywords: Bayesian models; Breast cancer; Lung cancer; Projections & predictions.

Publication types

  • Historical Article
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Bayes Theorem*
  • Breast Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • Breast Neoplasms / mortality
  • Female
  • History, 21st Century
  • Humans
  • Lung Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • Lung Neoplasms / mortality
  • Middle Aged
  • Spain / epidemiology