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. 2016 Jul 22;353(6297):353-4.
doi: 10.1126/science.aag0219. Epub 2016 Jul 14.

EPIDEMIOLOGY. Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America

Neil M Ferguson  1 , Zulma M Cucunubá  1 , Ilaria Dorigatti  1 , Gemma L Nedjati-Gilani  1 , Christl A Donnelly  2 , Maria-Gloria Basáñez  2 , Pierre Nouvellet  2 , Justin Lessler  3
Affiliations

EPIDEMIOLOGY. Countering the Zika epidemic in Latin America

Neil M Ferguson et al. Science. .
No abstract available

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Figures

Fig.1
Fig.1
A. Publically available surveillance data on weekly suspected (light grey) and laboratory confirmed (dark grey) Zika cases (left axis and bars) overlaid with estimates of the reproduction number, R (running 5-week average shown, centered on the middle week). The horizontal dashed line marks the R =1 threshold. Results for Brazil Colombia and Suriname are shown; see SM for other countries, sources and estimation methods. B. Typical (see SM for other examples) simulated time series of Zika weekly infection incidence per 1000 people in a population of 600 million for two scenarios: no interventions (blue curve), and assuming interventions which decrease mosquito lifespan by 20% for one year during the initial epidemic (red curve) Incidence is plotted on a non-linear scale (increments of 2 up to 10, then increments of 20) to allow later epidemics to be resolved clearly. Upper and lower shaded insets show, respectively, incidence dynamics (colored curves) in the 20 spatial regions being modelled (axes as main graph) and the age distribution (dark grey bars) of infections, for the first two epidemic periods in the no intervention scenario. Full details provided in SM.
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