Working with Climate Projections to Estimate Disease Burden: Perspectives from Public Health

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2016 Aug 9;13(8):804. doi: 10.3390/ijerph13080804.


There is interest among agencies and public health practitioners in the United States (USA) to estimate the future burden of climate-related health outcomes. Calculating disease burden projections can be especially daunting, given the complexities of climate modeling and the multiple pathways by which climate influences public health. Interdisciplinary coordination between public health practitioners and climate scientists is necessary for scientifically derived estimates. We describe a unique partnership of state and regional climate scientists and public health practitioners assembled by the Florida Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) program. We provide a background on climate modeling and projections that has been developed specifically for public health practitioners, describe methodologies for combining climate and health data to project disease burden, and demonstrate three examples of this process used in Florida.

Keywords: adaptation; attributable fraction; climate modeling; project disease burden; public health.

MeSH terms

  • Climate Change* / statistics & numerical data
  • Florida
  • Forecasting
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Public Health / trends*
  • United States