Background: Anthropometric and metabolic risk factors for all-cause end-stage renal disease (ESRD) may vary in their impact depending on the specific primary renal disease.
Methods: In this Austrian population-based prospective cohort study (n = 185,341; 53.9% women) the following data were collected between 1985 and 2005: age, sex, body mass index (BMI), fasting blood glucose (FBG) from 1988, blood pressure, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) and smoking status. These data were merged with the Austrian Dialysis and Transplant Registry to identify ESRD patients. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to calculate hazard ratios (HR) for all-cause ESRD as well as for cause-specific ESRD due to the following primary renal diseases: autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), vascular nephropathy (VN), diabetic nephropathy (DN) and other diseases (OD).
Results: During a mean follow-up of 17.5 years 403 participants developed ESRD (ADPKD 36, VN 97, DN 86, and OD 184). All parameters except TG and GGT were significantly associated with all-cause ESRD risk. Particular cause-specific ESRD risk factor patterns were found: for ADPKD increased risk from hypertension (HR 11.55); for VN from smoking (HR 1.81), hypertension (HR 2.37), TG (≥5.70 vs. <1.17 mmol/L: HR 9.27); for DN from smoking (HR 1.77), BMI (≥30 vs. 18.5-24.9 kg/m2: HR 7.55), FBG (≥6.94 vs. <5.55 mmol/L: HR 7.67), hypertension (HR 1.08), TG (≥5.70 vs. <1.17 mmol/L: HR 2.02), GGT (HR 2.14); and for OD from hypertension (HR 2.29), TG (≥5.70 vs. <1.17 mmol/L: HR 6.99) and TC (≥6.22 vs. <5.18 mmol/L: HR 1.56).
Conclusions: Particular anthropometric and metabolic ESRD risk factors differ in importance depending on the primary renal disease. This needs to be considered for future preventive and therapeutic strategies addressing cause-specific ESRD.