Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

Barbara Entwisle; Nathalie E Williams; Ashton M Verdery; Ronald R Rindfuss; Stephen J Walsh; George P Malanson; Peter J Mucha; Brian G Frizzelle; Philip M McDaniel; Xiaozheng Yao; Benjamin W Heumann; Pramote Prasartkul; Yothin Sawangdee; Aree Jampaklay

doi:10.1007/s11111-016-0254-y

Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

Popul Environ. 2016 Sep;38(1):47-71. doi: 10.1007/s11111-016-0254-y. Epub 2016 Jan 23.

Affiliations

¹ Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA; Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA; Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA.
² Jackson School of International Studies, University of Washington, USA; Department of Sociology, University of Washington, USA.
³ Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA; Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA.
⁴ Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA; Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA; East-West Center, Honolulu, HI, USA.
⁵ Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA; Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA.
⁶ Department of Geography, University of Iowa, USA.
⁷ Department of Mathematics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA.
⁸ Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA.
⁹ Davis Library, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA.
¹⁰ Virginia Tech University, USA.
¹¹ Dept. of Geography; Center for Geographic Information Science, Central Michigan University, USA.
¹² Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University, Thailand.

Abstract

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: 1) a reference, 'normal' scenario; 2) seven years of unusually wet weather; 3) seven years of unusually dry weather; and 4) seven years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.

Keywords: Agent-based model; Climate change; Migration; Thailand; Weather.

Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

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