Background & aims: The progression of chronic HCV infection varies significantly depending on patient characteristics. The goal of the present study was to evaluate the consequences of targeted and universal therapy for HCV-related morbidity-mortality based on the use of non-invasive diagnostic tests in France, Italy and the UK.
Methods: A country-specific Markov model was used to predict clinical outcomes in patients with chronic HCV mono-infection over 5years. Therapeutic strategies used in the three countries analysed: no treatment, targeted therapy based on stage of fibrosis (F2- or F3-scenario), treatment regardless of stage of fibrosis (universal analysis), base-case analysis and yearly assessments.
Results: Universal therapy is the most effective strategy and reduced the 5-year incidence of cirrhosis by 12.0-17.7, liver complications by 4.2-5.3 and liver deaths by 3.7-4.7, vs. no treatment. In base-case analysis, the F2-scenario using FibroScan or patented blood biomarkers reduces the 5-year incidence of cirrhosis by 2.7-4.0, liver complications by 3.5-3.7 and liver deaths by 3.3-3.7, vs. no treatment. The results of the F3-scenario are poor for the incidence of cirrhosis, and moderately effective for the liver complications. The alternative analysis with a yearly assessment of fibrosis improves the impact of targeted therapy.
Conclusion: By quantifying the impact of different strategies of targeted therapy and universal therapy, this study could help health agencies and experts to draft therapeutic guidelines for HCV-related fibrosis.
Lay summary: The impact of different treatment strategies was evaluated in three countries, France, Italy and UK, using a mathematical model. This analysis showed that: i) A prioritization strategy of HCV treatment for patients with advanced disease would decrease the overall impact of treatment on morbidity and mortality; and ii) A strategy initiating HCV treatment to all would already show a benefit in reducing 5-year morbidity and mortality.
Keywords: Cirrhosis; Interferon-free therapy; Liver complications; Liver deaths; Markov model; Non-invasive markers of fibrosis; Targeted therapy; Therapeutic strategy; Universal therapy.
Copyright © 2016 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.