Current models of climate change predict a reduction of area covered by northern coniferous forests and tundra, and an increase in grasslands. These scenarios also indicate a northerly shift in agricultural regions, bringing virgin soils under cultivation. The direct effects of man on tundra, boreal forest, and temperate grassland ecosystems are likely to result in less carbon mobilization from soils and vegetation than from tropical forests. However, as a consequence of climate change, carbon mineralization rates from arctic and sub-arctic soils could be very rapid under warmer and drier conditions because of low stabilization of soil organic matter (SOM) and enhanced microbial responses to small changes in soil moisture and temperature. Predicting the response of these systems to climate change is complicated where the edaphic environment regulating SOM dynamics is not a direct function of macroclimatic conditions. Grasslands contain a greater proportion of highly stabilized SOM than coniferous forests, distributed over greater depth in the soil profile, which is less susceptible to changes in mineralization rates. It is concluded that short-term responses of soil processes to climate change are more predictable in well-drained grassland and forest soils than in waterlogged soils of the tundra and boreal region. Over longer periods of time, however, plant species and soil types will alter in response to new temperature and moisture regimes above- and belowground interacting with the effects of carbon enrichment and changes in nutrient availability. The dynamics of these plant-soil interactions and the future status of soils in different life zones as sources or sinks of carbon is poorly understood. More data are also needed on the distribution of waterlogged forest soils in the boreal zone and responses to warming, which include the production of methane as well as CO2 . The primary recommendation for future research is for integrated studies on plant and soil processes.
© 1991 by the Ecological Society of America.