Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate

Shauna-Lee Chai; Jian Zhang; Amy Nixon; Scott Nielsen

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0165292

Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate

PLoS One. 2016 Oct 21;11(10):e0165292. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0165292. eCollection 2016.

Authors

Shauna-Lee Chai¹, Jian Zhang², Amy Nixon³, Scott Nielsen²

Affiliations

¹ Ecosystem Management, Alberta Innovates-Technology Futures, Vegreville, Alberta, Canada.
² Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
³ Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.

Abstract

Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta's biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis), tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis), and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula). We characterise giant knotweed as 'extremely invasive', with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is 'extremely invasive' with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is 'highly invasive' with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change.

MeSH terms

Alberta
Climate Change*
Ecosystem*
Introduced Species*
Models, Theoretical
Plants / classification
Risk Assessment*

Grants and funding

This research was funded by the Climate Change and Emissions Management Corporation and Alberta Innovates-Technology Futures. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Shauna-Lee Chai, Amy Nixon, Jian Zhang and Scott Nielsen were funded by the Climate Change and Emissions Management Corporation. Shauna-Lee Chai received additional funding from Alberta Innovates-Technology Futures.