The potential benefits of a new poliovirus vaccine for long-term poliovirus risk management

Future Microbiol. 2016 Dec;11:1549-1561. doi: 10.2217/fmb-2016-0126. Epub 2016 Nov 10.


Aim: To estimate the incremental net benefits (INBs) of a hypothetical ideal vaccine with all of the advantages and no disadvantages of existing oral and inactivated poliovirus vaccines compared with current vaccines available for future outbreak response.

Methods: INB estimates based on expected costs and polio cases from an existing global model of long-term poliovirus risk management.

Results: Excluding the development costs, an ideal poliovirus vaccine could offer expected INBs of US$1.6 billion. The ideal vaccine yields small benefits in most realizations of long-term risks, but great benefits in low-probability-high-consequence realizations.

Conclusion: New poliovirus vaccines may offer valuable insurance against long-term poliovirus risks and new vaccine development efforts should continue as the world gathers more evidence about polio endgame risks.

Keywords: OPV cessation; dynamic modeling; eradication; polio; risk management; vaccine development.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Poliomyelitis / economics
  • Poliomyelitis / immunology
  • Poliomyelitis / prevention & control*
  • Poliomyelitis / virology
  • Poliovirus / classification
  • Poliovirus / genetics
  • Poliovirus / immunology*
  • Poliovirus Vaccines / administration & dosage
  • Poliovirus Vaccines / economics
  • Poliovirus Vaccines / immunology*
  • Risk Management
  • Vaccination / economics


  • Poliovirus Vaccines