A method for the estimation of chronic disease morbidity and trends from mortality data

Stat Med. 1989 Feb;8(2):201-16. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780080207.


Measures of chronic degenerative disease diffusion, such as incidence and prevalence rates, are a basic need for epidemiologists and others working in many fields of human sciences. Equations relating death probabilities to incidence and survival probabilities for chronic degenerative diseases are derived from a cohort point of view. A maximum likelihood approach is adopted for the estimation of incidence as a function of time related covariates. When time series of mortality data are available, the model can be used to describe and analyse levels and dynamics of morbidity. A trial application to lung and breast cancer is given for the province of Varese, Italy, where incidence data are available from the Lombardy Cancer Register.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Breast Neoplasms / epidemiology
  • Breast Neoplasms / mortality
  • Chronic Disease / epidemiology*
  • Chronic Disease / mortality
  • Cohort Studies
  • Cross-Sectional Studies
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Italy
  • Lung Neoplasms / epidemiology
  • Lung Neoplasms / mortality
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Morbidity*
  • Mortality / trends*
  • Prognosis