Developing predictive models for return to work using the Military Power, Performance and Prevention (MP3) musculoskeletal injury risk algorithm: a study protocol for an injury risk assessment programme

Inj Prev. 2018 Feb;24(1):81-88. doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2016-042234. Epub 2016 Nov 24.

Abstract

Background: Musculoskeletal injuries are a primary source of disability in the US Military, and low back pain and lower extremity injuries account for over 44% of limited work days annually. History of prior musculoskeletal injury increases the risk for future injury. This study aims to determine the risk of injury after returning to work from a previous injury. The objective is to identify criteria that can help predict likelihood for future injury or re-injury.

Methods: There will be 480 active duty soldiers recruited from across four medical centres. These will be patients who have sustained a musculoskeletal injury in the lower extremity or lumbar/thoracic spine, and have now been cleared to return back to work without any limitations. Subjects will undergo a battery of physical performance tests and fill out sociodemographic surveys. They will be followed for a year to identify any musculoskeletal injuries that occur. Prediction algorithms will be derived using regression analysis from performance and sociodemographic variables found to be significantly different between injured and non-injured subjects.

Discussion: Due to the high rates of injuries, injury prevention and prediction initiatives are growing. This is the first study looking at predicting re-injury rates after an initial musculoskeletal injury. In addition, multivariate prediction models appear to have move value than models based on only one variable. This approach aims to validate a multivariate model used in healthy non-injured individuals to help improve variables that best predict the ability to return to work with lower risk of injury, after a recent musculoskeletal injury.

Trial registration number: NCT02776930.

Publication types

  • Observational Study
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Algorithms*
  • Female
  • Health Status Indicators
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Military Medicine*
  • Military Personnel*
  • Musculoskeletal Diseases / physiopathology
  • Musculoskeletal Diseases / rehabilitation*
  • Occupational Injuries / physiopathology
  • Occupational Injuries / rehabilitation*
  • Physical Examination
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Program Evaluation
  • Prospective Studies
  • Return to Work* / statistics & numerical data
  • Risk Assessment

Associated data

  • ClinicalTrials.gov/NCT02776930