[Acute effect of daily mean temperature on ischemic heart disease mortality: a multivariable meta-analysis from 12 counties across Hubei Province, China]

Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi. 2016 Nov 6;50(11):990-995. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2016.11.013.
[Article in Chinese]

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the acute effects of daily mean temperature on ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in 12 counties across Hubei Province, China. Methods: We obtained the daily IHD mortality data and meteorological data of the 12 counties for 2009-2012. The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to estimate the community-specific association between mean temperature and IHD mortality. A multivariate meta-analysis was then applied to pool the community-specific relationship between temperature and IHD mortality, and the effects of cold and heat on mortality risk. Results: In 2009-2012, of the 6 702 012 people included in this study, 19 688 died of IHD. A daily average of 1.2 IHD deaths occurred in each community. The annual average mean temperature was 16.6 ℃ during the study period. A nonlinear temperature-IHD mortality relationship was observed for different cumulative lag days at the provincial level. The pooled heat effect was acute but attenuated within 2 days. In contrast, the cold effect was delayed and persisted for more than 2 weeks. Compared with a reference temperature (25th percentile of mean temperature during the study period, P25), the cold effect for P10 of mean temperature was associated with IHD mortality, the RR(95% CI) was 1.084 (1.008-1.167) at lag 0-14, and 1.149 (1.053-1.253) at lag 0-21. For the P1 cold temperature, the mortality RR (95% CI) values were 1.116 (0.975-1.276) and 1.220 (1.04-1.428), respectively. We found no significant association between high temperatures and IHD mortality in the present study at different lag days. Conclusion: In Hubei Province, low temperature was associated with increased IHD mortality risk, and cold effects lasted for several days; no significant effect of high temperature was observed.

Publication types

  • Meta-Analysis

MeSH terms

  • China / epidemiology
  • Cold Temperature / adverse effects*
  • Coronary Artery Disease / mortality*
  • Hot Temperature / adverse effects*
  • Humans
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Myocardial Ischemia / mortality*
  • Nonlinear Dynamics
  • Risk
  • Survival Rate / trends
  • Temperature