Adenoma recurrence after piecemeal colonic EMR is predictable: the Sydney EMR recurrence tool

Gastrointest Endosc. 2017 Mar;85(3):647-656.e6. doi: 10.1016/j.gie.2016.11.027. Epub 2016 Nov 28.


Background and aims: EMR is the primary treatment of large laterally spreading lesions (LSLs) in the colon. Residual or recurrent adenoma (RRA) is a major limitation. We aimed to identify a robust method to stratify the risk of RRA.

Methods: Prospective multicenter data on consecutive LSLs ≥20 mm removed by piecemeal EMR from 8 Australian tertiary-care centers were included (September 2008 until May 2016). A logistic regression model for endoscopically determined recurrence (EDR) was created on a randomly selected half of the cohort to yield the Sydney EMR recurrence tool (SERT), a 4-point score to stratify the incidence of RRA based on characteristics of the index EMR. SERT was validated on the remainder of the cohort.

Results: Analysis was performed on 1178 lesions that underwent first surveillance colonoscopy (SC1) (median 4.9 months, interquartile range [IQR] 4.9-6.2). EDR was detected in 228 of 1178 (19.4%) patients. LSL size ≥40 mm (odds ratio [OR] 2.47; P < .001), bleeding during the procedure (OR 1.78; P = .024), and high-grade dysplasia (OR 1.72; P = .029) were identified as independent predictors of EDR and allocated scores of 2, 1, and 1, respectively to create SERT. Lesions with SERT scores of 0 (SERT = 0) had a negative predictive value of 91.3% for RRA at SC1, and SERT was shown to stratify RRA to specific follow-up intervals by using Kaplan Meier curves (log-rank P < .001).

Conclusions: Guidelines recommend SC1 within 6 months of EMR. SERT accurately stratifies the incidence of RRA after EMR. SERT = 0 lesions could safely undergo first surveillance at 18 months, whereas lesions with SERT scores between 1 and 4 (SERT 1-4) require surveillance at 6 and 18 months. (Clinical trial registration number: NCT01368289.).

MeSH terms

  • Adenoma / pathology
  • Adenoma / surgery*
  • Aged
  • Blood Loss, Surgical / statistics & numerical data
  • Colonic Neoplasms / pathology
  • Colonic Neoplasms / surgery*
  • Colonoscopy / methods*
  • Endoscopic Mucosal Resection / methods*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Kaplan-Meier Estimate
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Neoplasm Recurrence, Local / epidemiology*
  • Neoplasm, Residual
  • Precancerous Conditions / epidemiology
  • Prospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment
  • Tumor Burden

Associated data