The role of symptomatic presentation in influenza A transmission risk

Epidemiol Infect. 2017 Mar;145(4):723-727. doi: 10.1017/S0950268816002740. Epub 2016 Dec 5.


Computer models can be useful in planning interventions against novel strains of influenza. However such models sometimes make unsubstantiated assumptions about the relative infectivity of asymptomatic and symptomatic cases, or conversely assume there is no impact at all. Using household-level data from known-index studies of virologically confirmed influenza A infection, the relationship between an individual's infectiousness and their symptoms was quantified using a discrete-generation transmission model and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. It was found that the presence of particular respiratory symptoms in an index case does not influence transmission probabilities, with the exception of child-to-child transmission where the donor has phlegm or a phlegmy cough.

Keywords: Bayesian statistics; influenza A; modelling; symptoms; transmission.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Computer Simulation
  • Disease Transmission, Infectious*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Influenza, Human / pathology*
  • Influenza, Human / transmission*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Statistical
  • Risk Assessment
  • Young Adult