The cost-effectiveness of HLA-B*5801 screening to guide initial urate-lowering therapy for gout in the United States

Abstract

Objective: Positive HLA-B*5801 carriers are at greater risk of experiencing rare but severe allopurinol hypersensitivity syndrome (AHS) [i.e., Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS) and toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN)]; however, HLA-B*5801 prevalence and AHS risk vary by race/ethnicity. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of HLA-B*5801 testing according to race/ethnicity in the United States.

Methods: We determined the cost-effectiveness of universal testing for HLA-B*5801 compared to no testing prior to the initiation of allopurinol per US major race/ethnicity groups. Using US-specific data, SJS/TEN risks and HLA-B*5801 prevalences were modeled per race/ethnicity (i.e., 1/3846 and 0.7% among Caucasians and Hispanics, 1/735 and 3.8% among African Americans, and 1/336 and 7.4% among Asians, respectively). Those who tested positive for HLA-B*5801 received febuxostat. Costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated over a lifetime.

Results: Compared to no testing, universal testing for HLA-B*5801 costs more and was more effective for all races/ethnicities. The ICERs varied substantially across racial/ethnic groups, following their HLA-B*5801 prevalences. HLA-B*5801 testing was cost-effective for African Americans (ICER $83,450) and Asians (ICER $64,190), but not for Caucasians or Hispanics (ICER $183,720), using accepted US willingness-to-pay threshold ($109,000/QALY). Results were robust in sensitivity analyses, except that reducing the risk of SJS/TEN by a half made testing not cost-effective for all races/ethnicities.

Conclusion: Testing for HLA-B*5801 prior to allopurinol initiation is cost-effective for Asians and African Americans, but not for Caucasians or Hispanics in the United States. Reducing AHS risk by other predictive measures could make HLA-B*5801 testing not cost-effective even among Asians and Blacks.

Keywords: Economic evaluations; Gout; Outcomes research.

Figure 1. Decision Tree

Figure Legend: Abbreviations: SJS, Stevens-Johnson Syndrome; TEN, Toxic Epidermal Necrolysis. The decision tree depicts the testing process, risk of SJS/TEN, and treatment assignment following SJS/TEN and other cutaneous reactions. The Markov model depicts the model states. Following the testing process, patients enter the model uncontrolled on therapy and can transition to controlled on therapy or uncontrolled off therapy. Patients can die from any state.

Figure 2

Two-way Sensitivity Analysis by Prevalence of HLA*5801 According to Race/Ethnicity and the Cost of HLA-B*5801 Test