Cliff-edge model of obstetric selection in humans

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Dec 20;113(51):14680-14685. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1612410113. Epub 2016 Dec 5.

Abstract

The strikingly high incidence of obstructed labor due to the disproportion of fetal size and the mother's pelvic dimensions has puzzled evolutionary scientists for decades. Here we propose that these high rates are a direct consequence of the distinct characteristics of human obstetric selection. Neonatal size relative to the birth-relevant maternal dimensions is highly variable and positively associated with reproductive success until it reaches a critical value, beyond which natural delivery becomes impossible. As a consequence, the symmetric phenotype distribution cannot match the highly asymmetric, cliff-edged fitness distribution well: The optimal phenotype distribution that maximizes population mean fitness entails a fraction of individuals falling beyond the "fitness edge" (i.e., those with fetopelvic disproportion). Using a simple mathematical model, we show that weak directional selection for a large neonate, a narrow pelvic canal, or both is sufficient to account for the considerable incidence of fetopelvic disproportion. Based on this model, we predict that the regular use of Caesarean sections throughout the last decades has led to an evolutionary increase of fetopelvic disproportion rates by 10 to 20%.

Keywords: cephalopelvic disproportion; human evolution; natural selection; obstetric dilemma; obstructed labor.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Biological Evolution
  • Biomechanical Phenomena
  • Cephalopelvic Disproportion / epidemiology*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Labor, Obstetric
  • Male
  • Models, Statistical
  • Obstetrics / methods*
  • Parturition
  • Pelvis / anatomy & histology*
  • Phenotype
  • Pregnancy
  • Risk