Spatio-temporal and neighborhood characteristics of two dengue outbreaks in two arid cities of Mexico

Acta Trop. 2017 Mar:167:174-182. doi: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2017.01.001. Epub 2017 Jan 3.


Little is currently known about the spatial-temporal dynamics of dengue epidemics in arid areas. This study assesses dengue outbreaks that occurred in two arid cities of Mexico, Hermosillo and Navojoa, located in northern state of Sonora. Laboratory confirmed dengue cases from Hermosillo (N=2730) and Navojoa (N=493) were geocoded by residence and assigned neighborhood-level characteristics from the 2010 Mexican census. Kernel density and Space-time cluster analysis was performed to detect high density areas and space-time clusters of dengue. Ordinary Least Square regression was used to assess the changing socioeconomic characteristics of cases over the course of the outbreaks. Both cities exhibited contiguous patterns of space-time clustering. Initial areas of dissemination were characterized in both cities by high population density, high percentage of occupied houses, and lack of healthcare. Future research and control efforts in these regions should consider these space-time and socioeconomic patterns.

Keywords: Dengue outbreak; Socioeconomic factors; Space-time clustering.

MeSH terms

  • Cities
  • Climate
  • Dengue / epidemiology*
  • Disease Outbreaks*
  • Humans
  • Mexico / epidemiology
  • Population Density
  • Residence Characteristics*
  • Socioeconomic Factors
  • Spatio-Temporal Analysis