Objectives: To determine the lifetime social value of using the guideline-recommended vaccines for children born in the United States in 2009.
Study design: This study utilized an economic model with parameter values sourced from clinical and observational data, as well as the literature.
Methods: The model quantified the health effects of routine vaccination for 14 diseases in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) saved. The health effects were then valued by applying an economic value of a QALY. Producers' profits were estimated using data on vaccine prices, profit margins, and the number of vaccines administrated in the 2009 US birth cohort. The costs of producing the vaccines were subtracted from the value of the health effects to yield the total social value of vaccination. The producers' and consumers' shares of this social value were calculated. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine how results depend on underlying parameter assumptions.
Results: Estimates indicated that vaccination of this cohort will save 1.2 million QALYs, relative to no vaccination. Of those health gains, 88% stemmed from reduced mortality and 12% from reduced morbidity. We estimated a social value of $184.1 billion from these gains, of which $3.4 billion accrues to manufacturers as profits, while $180.7 billion accrues to the rest of society. In sensitivity analysis, the total social value ranged from $40 billion to $675 billion, and the manufacturers' share ranged from 0.3% to 11.5%.
Conclusions: Policy makers should account for this social value when considering policies affecting incentives to vaccinate and develop new vaccines.