Early and Real-Time Detection of Seasonal Influenza Onset

PLoS Comput Biol. 2017 Feb 3;13(2):e1005330. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005330. eCollection 2017 Feb.

Abstract

Every year, influenza epidemics affect millions of people and place a strong burden on health care services. A timely knowledge of the onset of the epidemic could allow these services to prepare for the peak. We present a method that can reliably identify and signal the influenza outbreak. By combining official Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) incidence rates, searches for ILI-related terms on Google, and an on-call triage phone service, Saúde 24, we were able to identify the beginning of the flu season in 8 European countries, anticipating current official alerts by several weeks. This work shows that it is possible to detect and consistently anticipate the onset of the flu season, in real-time, regardless of the amplitude of the epidemic, with obvious advantages for health care authorities. We also show that the method is not limited to one country, specific region or language, and that it provides a simple and reliable signal that can be used in early detection of other seasonal diseases.

Publication types

  • Evaluation Study

MeSH terms

  • Computer Simulation
  • Computer Systems
  • Data Interpretation, Statistical
  • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data*
  • Early Diagnosis
  • Europe / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Influenza, Human / diagnosis*
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology*
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Population Surveillance / methods*
  • Prevalence
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Risk Assessment / methods
  • Seasons*
  • Sensitivity and Specificity

Grants and funding

This work was supported in part by PTDC IVC ESCT 5337 2012, funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e para a Tecnologia (FCT) and by the Welcome DFRH WIIA 60 2011, co-funded by the Fundação para a Ciência e para a Tecnologia and the Marie Curie Actions, both awarded to JGS. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.