Nomograms for predicting long-term overall survival and cancer-specific survival in patients with major salivary gland cancer: a population-based study

Oncotarget. 2017 Apr 11;8(15):24469-24482. doi: 10.18632/oncotarget.14905.


In this study, we aimed to develop and validate nomograms for predicting long-term overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in major salivary gland cancer (MSGC) patients. These nomograms were developed using a retrospective cohort (N=4218) from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and externally validated using an independent data cohort (N=244). We used univariate, and multivariate analyses, and cumulative incidence function to select the independent prognostic factors of OS and CSS. Index of concordance (c-index) and calibration plots were used to estimate the nomograms' predictive accuracy. The median follow-up period was 34 months (1-119 months). Of 4218 MSGC patients, 1320 (31.3%) died by the end of the follow-up; of these 1320 patients, 883 (20.9%) died of MSGC. The OS nomogram, which had a c-index of 0.817, was based on nine variables: age, sex, tumor site, tumor grade, surgery performed, radiation therapy and TNM classifications. The CSS nomogram, which had a c-index of 0.829, was based on the same nine variables plus race. External validation c-indexes were 0.829 and 0.807 for OS and CSS, respectively. Based on SEER database, we have developed nomograms predicting five- and eight-years OS and CSS for MSGC patients with perfect accuracy. These nomograms will help clinicians customize treatment and monitoring strategies in MSGC patients.

Keywords: cancer-specific survival; head and neck; major salivary gland cancer; nomograms; overall survival.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Nomograms*
  • Prognosis
  • SEER Program
  • Salivary Gland Neoplasms / mortality*
  • Salivary Gland Neoplasms / pathology
  • Survival Analysis
  • United States / epidemiology
  • Young Adult