Predicting progression to dementia in persons with mild cognitive impairment using cerebrospinal fluid markers

Alzheimers Dement. 2017 Aug;13(8):903-912. doi: 10.1016/j.jalz.2016.12.015. Epub 2017 Feb 17.


Introduction: We aimed to determine the added value of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) to clinical and imaging tests to predict progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to any type of dementia.

Methods: The risk of progression to dementia was estimated using two logistic regression models based on 250 MCI participants: the first included standard clinical measures (demographic, clinical, and imaging test information) without CSF biomarkers, and the second included standard clinical measures with CSF biomarkers.

Results: Adding CSF improved predictive accuracy with 0.11 (scale from 0-1). Of all participants, 136 (54%) had a change in risk score of 0.10 or higher (which was considered clinically relevant), of whom in 101, it was in agreement with their dementia status at follow-up.

Discussion: An individual person's risk of progression from MCI to dementia can be improved by relying on CSF biomarkers in addition to recommended clinical and imaging tests for usual care.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease; Conversion; Dementia; Mild cognitive impairment; Predict; Prognosis; Progression; Reclassification; Risk; Risk prediction model.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Biomarkers / cerebrospinal fluid
  • Cognitive Dysfunction / cerebrospinal fluid*
  • Cognitive Dysfunction / diagnostic imaging
  • Dementia / cerebrospinal fluid*
  • Dementia / diagnostic imaging
  • Disease Progression
  • Educational Status
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Magnetic Resonance Imaging
  • Male
  • Mental Status and Dementia Tests
  • Middle Aged
  • Prognosis
  • Risk Assessment
  • Temporal Lobe / diagnostic imaging


  • Biomarkers