Moderating the Influence of Current Intention to Improve Suicide Risk Prediction

AMIA Annu Symp Proc. 2017 Feb 10:2016:1274-1282. eCollection 2016.


When assessors evaluate a person's risk of completing suicide, the person's expressed current intention is one of the most influential factors. However, ifpeople say they have no intention, this may not be true for a number of reasons. This paper explores the reliability of negative intention in data provided by mental-health services using the GRiST decision support system in England. It identifies features within a risk assessment record that can classify a negative statement regarding current intention of suicide as being reliable or unreliable. The algorithm is tested on previously conducted assessments, where outcomes found in later assessments do or do not match the initially stated intention. Test results show significant separation between the two classes. It means suicide predictions could be made more accurate by modifying the assessment process and associated risk judgement in accordance with a better understanding of the person's true intention.

Keywords: Clinical Risk Judgment; Decision Support System; GRiST; Suicide Intention; Suicide Risk.

MeSH terms

  • Decision Support Systems, Clinical*
  • England
  • Humans
  • Intention*
  • Mental Health Services
  • Risk Assessment / methods
  • Suicidal Ideation*
  • Suicide / psychology