A universal law of the characteristic return time near thresholds

Oecologia. 1984 Dec;65(1):101-107. doi: 10.1007/BF00384470.


Dramatic changes at thresholds in multiple stable ecosystems may be irreversible if caused by man. The characteristic return time to an equilibrium increases when a threshold is approached. A universal law for this increase is found, which may be used to forecast the position of a threshold by extrapolation of empirical data. Harvesting experiments on populations are proposed that can be used to verify the method. Preliminary harvesting experiments on rotifer populations display a good agreement with the theory.