Evidence on the Validity of a Comprehensive Health Risk Index and Implications for Ambulatory Care and Population Health Management

J Ambul Care Manage. 2017 Oct/Dec;40(4):297-304. doi: 10.1097/JAC.0000000000000177.


A novel, comprehensive health risk index for adults has been validated and is now ready for use to improve the health of individuals and populations. This health risk index provides an estimate of the avoidable risk of death for adults 30 years or older. It includes 12 evidence-based clinical and behavioral risk factors and was validated on discrimination and calibration using the NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) and Framingham Heart Study cohorts. The results from both cohorts were consistent and similar. Discrimination was good, and calibration was acceptable but tended to overpredict mortality risk for females in the higher-risk deciles.

MeSH terms

  • Ambulatory Care*
  • Female
  • Health Status Indicators*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Mortality
  • Nutrition Surveys / standards*
  • Population Health
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Risk Assessment / standards*