Predictive Validity of ICD-11 PTSD as Measured by the Impact of Event Scale-Revised: A 15-Year Prospective Study of Political Prisoners

J Trauma Stress. 2017 Apr;30(2):125-132. doi: 10.1002/jts.22171. Epub 2017 Mar 29.


The 11th edition of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11; World Health Organization, 2017) proposes a model of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) that includes 6 symptoms. This study assessed the ability of a classification-independent measure of posttraumatic stress symptoms, the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (Weiss & Marmar, 1996), to capture the ICD-11 model of PTSD. The current study also provided the first assessment of the predictive validity of ICD-11 PTSD. Former East German political prisoners were assessed in 1994 (N = 144) and in 2008-2009 (N = 88) on numerous psychological variables using self-report measures. Of the participants, 48.2% and 36.8% met probable diagnosis for ICD-11 PTSD at the first and second assessments, respectively. Confirmatory factor analysis supported the factorial validity of the 3-factor ICD-11 model of PTSD, as represented by items selected from the Impact of Event Scale-Revised. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis demonstrated that, controlling for sex, the symptom clusters of ICD-11 PTSD (reexperiencing, avoidance, and sense of threat) significantly contributed to the explanation of depression (R2 = .17), quality of life (R2 = .21), internalized anger (R2 = .10), externalized anger (R2 = .12), hatred of perpetrators (R2 = .15), dysfunctional disclosure (R2 = .27), and social acknowledgment as a victim (R2 = .12) across the 15-year study period. Current findings add support for the factorial and predictive validity of ICD-11 PTSD within a unique cohort of political prisoners.

Publication types

  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Depression / psychology
  • Female
  • Germany, East
  • Humans
  • International Classification of Diseases*
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Prisoners / psychology*
  • Prospective Studies
  • Quality of Life
  • Regression Analysis
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Self Report
  • Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic / diagnosis*
  • Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic / psychology*
  • Young Adult