Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab

Br J Cancer. 2017 Jun 6;116(12):1526-1535. doi: 10.1038/bjc.2017.122. Epub 2017 May 2.

Abstract

Background: To develop and validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to predict overall survival (OS) in Caucasian-advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (AOA) patients undergoing first-line combination chemotherapy.

Methods: Nine hundred twenty-four AOA patients treated at 28 Spanish teaching hospitals from January 2008 to September 2014 were used as derivation cohort. The result of an adjusted-Cox proportional hazards regression was represented as a nomogram and web-based calculator. The model was validated in 502 prospectively recruited patients treated between October 2014 and December 2016. Harrell's c-index was used to evaluate discrimination.

Results: The nomogram includes seven predictors associated with OS: HER2-positive tumours treated with trastuzumab, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, number of metastatic sites, bone metastases, ascites, histological grade, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Median OS was 5.8 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.5-6.6), 9.4 (95% CI, 8.5-10.6), and 14 months (95% CI, 11.8-16) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P<0.001), in the derivation set and 4.6 (95% CI, 3.3-8.1), 12.7 (95% CI, 11.3-14.3), and 18.3 months (95% CI, 14.6-24.2) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P<0.001), in the validation set. The nomogram is well-calibrated and reveals acceptable discriminatory capacity, with optimism-corrected c-indices of 0.618 (95% CI, 0.591-0.631) and 0.673 (95% CI, 0.636-0.709) in derivation and validation groups, respectively. The AGAMENON nomogram outperformed the Royal Marsden Hospital (c-index=0.583; P=0.00046) and Japan Clinical Oncology Group prognostic indices (c-index=0.611; P=0.03351).

Conclusions: We developed and validated a straightforward model to predict survival in Caucasian AOA patients initiating first-line polychemotherapy. This model can contribute to inform clinical decision-making and optimise clinical trial design.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study
  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Adenocarcinoma / chemistry
  • Adenocarcinoma / drug therapy*
  • Adenocarcinoma / secondary
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols / therapeutic use*
  • Ascites / etiology
  • Bone Neoplasms / secondary*
  • Esophageal Neoplasms / chemistry
  • Esophageal Neoplasms / drug therapy*
  • Esophageal Neoplasms / pathology
  • Esophagogastric Junction*
  • European Continental Ancestry Group
  • Health Status
  • Humans
  • Lymphocyte Count
  • Middle Aged
  • Neoplasm Grading
  • Neutrophils
  • Nomograms*
  • Receptor, ErbB-2 / analysis
  • Stomach Neoplasms / chemistry
  • Stomach Neoplasms / drug therapy*
  • Stomach Neoplasms / pathology
  • Survival Rate
  • Trastuzumab / administration & dosage
  • Tumor Burden
  • Young Adult

Substances

  • ERBB2 protein, human
  • Receptor, ErbB-2
  • Trastuzumab