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, 4 (4), 161090

Population Dynamics and Threats to an Apex Predator Outside Protected Areas: Implications for Carnivore Management


Population Dynamics and Threats to an Apex Predator Outside Protected Areas: Implications for Carnivore Management

Samual T Williams et al. R Soc Open Sci.


Data on the population dynamics and threats to large carnivores are vital to conservation efforts, but these are hampered by a paucity of studies. For some species, such as the leopard (Panthera pardus), there is such uncertainty in population trends that leopard trophy hunting has been banned in South Africa since 2016 while further data on leopard abundance are collected. We present one of the first assessments of leopard population dynamics, and identify the key threats to a population of leopards outside of protected areas in South Africa. We conducted a long-term trap survey between 2012 and 2016 in the Soutpansberg Mountains, and drew on a previous estimate of leopard population density for the region from 2008. In 24 sampling periods, we estimated the population density and assessed population structure. We fitted eight leopards with GPS collars to assess threats to the population. Leopard population density declined by 66%, from 10.73 to 3.65 leopards per 100 km2 in 2008 and 2016, respectively. Collared leopards had a high mortality rate, which appeared to be due to illegal human activity. While improving the management of trophy hunting is important, we suggest that mitigating human-wildlife conflict could have a bigger impact on carnivore conservation.

Keywords: Panthera pardus; camera trap; felid; human–wildlife conflict; snaring; telemetry.

Conflict of interest statement

We have no competing interests.


Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Locations of the camera traps for the survey of leopard population density and demography in the Soutpansberg Mountains.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Sampling periods in which individual leopards were photographed on camera traps in the Soutpansberg Mountains between 2012 and 2016 (see the electronic supplementary material, table A2 for dates).
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Change in the number of individual leopards identified per sampling period in each age sex class in the Soutpansberg Mountains between 2012 and 2016. Shading represents 95% CIs.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Change in the population density of leopards in the Soutpansberg Mountains between 2008 and 2016. Shading represents 95% CIs.

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